Before his DeepDive lecture "Catalonia and Spain: A Complicated Relationship" on Thursday 10 December 2026, here is a look at the man and his thinking, compiled from his published work and interviews.
Andrew Dowling is a contemporary historian at Cardiff University, where he has taught since 2002, and one of the leading English-language authorities on Catalonia. He is the author of Catalonia: A New History (Routledge, 2022), awarded the Premi Crítica Serra d'Or in 2024, editor of the Routledge Handbook of Spanish History, and series editor of Anthem Catalan Studies. When Catalonia makes headlines, he is the historian the BBC, The New York Times and The Washington Post call.
In 2005, Dowling notes, fewer than 15% of Catalans supported independence; within a few years it was close to half. He argues the Catalan question had been largely manageable inside Spain's semi-federal system until around 2010, when overlapping crises broke open Spanish politics, and that the movement's narrative had already been shaped in the early 2000s.
He has described it as a referendum in which non-independence Catalonia stayed home and no real "no" campaign existed. In his reading, the police violence that day was the single most effective moment the movement ever had, far more powerful than the vote itself, while the leadership's strategy was largely performative.
No, he argues. Catalonia is not homogeneous: Catalan speakers are a politically dominant minority, and only about 30% of Catalans reject any Spanish identification. That is why, in his analysis, support for independence has stayed trapped at roughly 45 to 48%, a movement strongly correlated with higher social status and Catalan-speaking identity.
He has described it as part of a deal between the PSOE-led government and the independence parties, negotiated with Carles Puigdemont, covering independence-related acts since 2012 as well as police accused of excessive force. It provoked fierce opposition from conservative media, judges and police organisations, in a Spain where he sees the judiciary often acting as a para-political player and a resurgent Spanish nationalism in conservative circles.
Dowling has written that "Catalan independence is less likely today than at any time in the past 10 years". The movement's acceptance that any future route must be legal and constitutional is, for him, a sign of de-escalation; independence is off the agenda for the foreseeable future, though the movement itself will persist. The deeper challenge, he argues, is building a narrative that includes all Catalans, not just half of them.
Doors 18:30 · In English · Venue to be announced